Gold's Crash Coming? Why Bitcoin Could Win Big
Why Gold's Glow Is Fading Fast
Gold's recent dip isn't just a blip. Citi points to three crushing forces:
- Middle East calm reducing panic buying
- Stronger global growth under Trump policies
- Vanishing investment demand as tariffs ease
| Gold Scenario | Price Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Base Case (Citi) | $2,500-$2,750 by 2026 | 60% |
| Bull Case (Geopolitical flare-up) | Above $3,500 | 20% |
| Bear Case (Rapid tariff fixes) | Below $3,000 | 20% |
Tariff Tremors: Gold and Crypto Feel the Shake
Trump's trade wars are shaking all markets. New 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada and 10% on China initially sent investors scrambling to gold. But now, potential resolutions could backfire on the yellow metal. Citi notes fading tariff fears will "weigh on gold demand" just as Bitcoin shows surprising strength. When tariffs spiked, Bitcoin briefly dipped with stocks but rebounded faster than gold - hinting at its growing haven appeal.
James Butterfill, CoinShares' Research Head, explains: "Tariffs first hurt Bitcoin like any risk asset. But when markets grasp that the U.S. can't hike rates forever in a weak economy? That's when Bitcoin soars while stocks drown".
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: The Great Divergence
While gold struggles, Bitcoin is eating the crypto world. Check the numbers:
- Bitcoin's market share hit 64% - highest since 2021
- Altcoins bled $300 billion this year alone
- Ether lags 50% below its peak despite ETF approval
Wintermute trader Jake Ostrovskis sees the pattern: "Historically, Bitcoin runs first, then alts follow. Not this time." The reason? Institutions flooding into Bitcoin ETFs have no appetite for riskier tokens.
Gold's Loss Could Be Crypto's Gain
As gold's deficits peak this quarter then weaken, watch these crypto impacts:
- Bitcoin as "Digital Gold 2.0": With physical gold demand fading, Bitcoin's fixed supply could attract fleeing investors.
- Stablecoin Surge: Real-world payments shift to stablecoins (up $47B this year), not volatile alts.
- Mining Shakeup: Trump-linked Bitcoin miners expand as gold miners struggle with falling prices.
What Smart Investors Are Watching
From our crypto news desk, two expert views cut through the noise:
"Bitcoin thrives in gold's weakness," says Zodia Markets' Nick Philpott. "When tariffs crushed growth assets, Bitcoin decoupled during the 2023 banking crisis. That safe-haven paradox could replay."
But Arca CIO Jeff Dorman cautions: "Not all crypto wins. Focus on tokens with real revenue - like Maker and Hyperliquid. The rest are digital ghosts."
As gold's record run stalls, crypto stands at a crossroads. Bitcoin could emerge as the true beneficiary of fading metal demand - but only if it proves its mettle as the digital safe haven for turbulent times.
