The Solar Wrecking Ball
The Senate bill delivers brutal blows to renewables:
- Tax credits for large solar/wind projects end in 2027 – years earlier than planned
- New taxes target projects using Chinese supplies after 2027
- Residential solar credits vanish by December 2025
Elon Musk blasted the plan as "utterly insane and destructive," warning it "will destroy millions of jobs" while favoring "industries of the past". Analysts predict these changes could slash U.S. clean energy growth by 72%, risking blackouts as AI data centers hike electricity demand.
The Unexpected Winners
Against this grim backdrop, two solar companies are surging:
1. First Solar (Up 8.6%):
The new tax on Chinese imports makes First Solar’s U.S.-made panels suddenly more competitive. As the largest American solar manufacturer, it could steal market share while rival's struggle.
2. Sunrun (Up 5%):
Though the bill blocks tax credits for solar leasing, it leaves a loophole for "power-purchase agreements" (PPAs) – Sunrun’s specialty. The company also gets extra time to claim certain investment credits, giving it breathing room.
Crypto’s Quiet Stake
While not directly in the bill, crypto plays a hidden role:
- Bitcoin mining and AI data centers will increase U.S. electricity demand 20% by 2030. Solar remains critical for cheap power, especially in crypto-heavy states like Texas.
- Separate crypto regulations in the megabill could boost blockchain projects. Senator Cynthia Lummis secured rules supporting stablecoins and mining – sectors needing massive energy.
Market Whiplash
The solar sector split violently Monday:
| Company | Change | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Enphase Energy | ▼ 3.4% | Relies on residential credits |
| NextEra Energy | ▼ 4.8% | Large-scale projects hit by deadlines |
| First Solar | ▲ 8.6% | Benefits from China import taxes |
| Sunrun | ▲ 5% | PPA loophole, credit extensions |
What Comes Next
Solar’s future now hinges on the Senate-House compromise. If the China taxes and PPA loopholes survive, companies like First Solar could keep rallying. But analysts warn the broader industry faces a "death sentence" – even as crypto and AI make reliable power more urgent than ever.
