Bitcoin Tests $114K Support: Fed Decision to Dictate Next Move
Reporting from New York trading desks, Bitcoin is consolidating near $114K–$116K after flushing $116K liquidity zones last week. With the FOMC meeting looming on Wednesday, your portfolio hinges on whether this support holds or cracks under macro pressure. Here’s what the signals reveal.
Technical Battle at Critical Support
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a steep ascending channel with $114K as make-or-break support. Despite a 4-hour bullish flag breakout targeting $123K, Friday’s dip to $117,914 exposed vulnerability. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement ($115K) must hold to prevent a slide toward $110K.
| Level | Role | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Support | Ascending Channel Base | $114K–$116K |
| Resistance | All-Time High (ATH) | $123,153 |
| Breakdown Target | Next Major Support | $110K |
Whales vs. Retail: Supply Imbalance Grows
On July 25, Binance recorded $1.2B in BTC whale inflows—the largest 30-day surge—triggering sell pressure. Retail inflows are rising but can’t absorb this supply wave alone. If whales dump further post-FOMC, $114K support could collapse.
Fed’s Hawkish or Dovish? Two Paths for BTC
Scenario 1: Rate Cut Confirmation
A dovish Fed could propel BTC past $119.5K resistance, targeting $130K. Institutional inflows (July ETF inflows: $1.9B/week) would amplify momentum.
Scenario 2: Hawkish Surprise
No rate cuts = risk-off sell-off. BTC would test $114K, with breakdowns risking $110K. Taker Sell CVD data already shows dominance of sellers.
Expert Voices
"The $114K zone is Bitcoin’s line in the sand. Lose it, and we revisit $110K fast. Hold it, and $123K ATH is in play post-Fed."
– ShayanMarkets, CryptoPotato Analyst
"Whale inflows are the wildcard. If they accelerate selling, retail can’t defend support alone."
– Tony Sycamore, IG Markets
Trader’s Action Plan
- Watch $114K hourly closes – 3 consecutive below = bearish confirmation.
- Track Fed speech keywords – "Inflation stubborn" = sell; "Soft landing" = buy.
- Monitor Binance whale wallets – Spikes in exchange deposits signal dumping risk.
FAQs: What You Need to Know
Q: Is Bitcoin’s correction over?
A: Only if $114K holds post-FOMC. Current sideways action suggests indecision.
Q: How could altcoins react?
A: BNB’s 7% surge to $855 shows capital rotation. If BTC stabilizes, ETH ($3.8K) and SOL ($191) may rally.
Q: What’s the worst-case scenario?
A: Hawkish Fed + whale selling = $110K test (8% drop). Stop-losses clustered there could trigger cascades.
